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Examining the Economy


As of this moment, the U.S. economy seems to be in pretty decent shape. Odds of a near-term recession appear low. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the economy has expanded for the past 11 quarters.  Hiring remains stable. Home prices have been rising. Private construction spending has been expanding. Consumer spending is up, particularly in the form of online sales. However, there were moments in 2016 when things didn’t look quite so good.

The stock market got off to a very bad start last year, potentially signaling trouble for the broader economy.  By February 11 of 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined approximately 10 percent from the beginning of the year. Job creation appeared to be slowing. There were barely any jobs created in May of 2016, which represented a third consecutive month of slowing job growth.

By July of last year, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal generated an average probability of recession within 12 months at 22 percent. But those odds have ratcheted lower in recent months, reaching 17 percent by early December.  Many businesspeople appear to have become more upbeat due to prospects for less regulation, lower taxes, and more infrastructure spending.  

Anirban Basu, Chariman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants. Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes. Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.