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Continued Improvement in the Domestic Labor Market - 6/29/15

The ongoing expansion of the U.S. economy is nowhere more apparent than in the domestic labor market.  Over the past twelve months, the economy has produced more than three million net new jobs.  Job growth hasn’t been this good since nineteen ninety nine at the height of the nation’s technology boom. 

According to Moody’s Analytics, the U.S. labor market remains on track to create around two point five million jobs during the current calendar year, more than double the pace necessary to absorb the expansion in working age population. 

If the current pace of job growth continues, the economy will return to full employment by this time next year, meaning that the unemployment rate will be around five percent, labor force participation will be somewhat higher, and there will be fewer people who want to work full time but are stuck in part time positions. 

The last time the economy was at full employment was nearly a decade ago.  While job growth has been solid, growth in gross domestic product remains lackluster, expanding at a pedestrian two point two percent per annum pace over the course of the economic recovery.  Growth has actually turned negative on three brief occasions since the recession ended.

Anirban Basu, Chariman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants. Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes. Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.