The mounting fallout from the coronavirus crisis will push the United States into an unprecedented state of contraction that, depending on the severity and length of government-mandated quarantines, could result in economic upheaval and job dislocation unseen since World War II.
That’s the sobering consensus among a trio of economists whose best-case scenario — a hard stop of the U.S. economy that abates by midyear — still would amount to a 9% contraction of economic output and a jump to 6.5% unemployment in the second quarter. The group's worst-case forecast is that the crisis triggers slowdowns in household consumption, housing and business activity, would likely trigger economic losses unrivaled in our lifetime.