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Israel used to be deterred from attacking Iran. Not anymore

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has wanted to attack Iran for decades. Initially, President Trump asked him to hold off, but all that has changed now. Israel has gone to war in Iran, and the U.S. decided to come along with him, striking Iran this past weekend. How did Netanyahu pull it off? NPR's Daniel Estrin reports from Tel Aviv.

DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: Benjamin Netanyahu warned about Iran's nuclear program for more than three decades. A decade ago at the United Nations, he held up a cartoon of a bomb and said Iran was inching closer to an advanced stage of uranium enrichment.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: From there, it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.

ESTRIN: Iran has long threatened to destroy Israel. Netanyahu long wanted to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, but couldn't get U.S. support. Ilan Goldenberg of the advocacy group J Street used to work at the Pentagon tracking Israel-Iran tensions under the Obama administration.

ILAN GOLDENBERG: What we actually pursued during those years, and I think it's been really a consistent strategy for 20 years from the United States, has been what you might call the hug-and-punch strategy. Demonstrate to the Israelis at every step of the way, we are capable of doing this much more effectively than you are, and we've got your back, and we will do it if we need to. And at the same time, don't you do it.

ESTRIN: After President Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran this year, he said he asked Netanyahu to hold off on any attack. But by then, Israelis' own thinking had changed. Israel used to be deterred from attacking Iran by the threat of retaliation from Hamas, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. But those threats were beaten back in the last few years of war, and Israel got some practice rounds bombing Iran. Reuven Hazan teaches political science at Hebrew University.

REUVEN HAZAN: Hamas is almost obliterated. Hezbollah has been hit so hard that they are sitting this one out. The Syrian regime has collapsed. And we were able to fly to Iran to take out their antiaircraft missiles and to realize that now an operation like this can be done with little damage to us. So all of the chess pieces have moved, and while Netanyahu has been talking about this for decades, it is only in the last several months that this has all lined up for him and it's become possible.

ESTRIN: Over the years, Netanyahu's focus on Iran has had other political advantages. Lior Sternfeld, a Mideast historian at Penn State University, says it helped Netanyahu distract from Israel's unresolved conflict with the Palestinians.

LIOR STERNFELD: Because every critique on Israel behavior in the West Bank and Gaza, it was always convenient to have some kind of greater risk - not just to Israel, but to the world - in the form of Iran in order to quiet critique.

ESTRIN: The war on Iran also helped Netanyahu with problems at home. He averted his governing coalition from falling apart and sidelined widespread frustration with the Gaza war. Nadav Strauchler, a former adviser to Netanyahu, says as Trump considered whether to join in the Iran war, Netanyahu was well prepared for the moment.

NADAV STRAUCHLER: The big trophy, the big idea, his big goal, his life's mission, was always Iran. So because he was so into it, it was, I think, easier for him to persuade Trump that this is the right thing to do.

ESTRIN: This past weekend, the U.S. bombed Iran's main nuclear sites, and Netanyahu released this video.

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NETANYAHU: Congratulations, President Trump. Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history.

ESTRIN: Whether Trump and Netanyahu will continue to be in lockstep is a question, especially over Gaza. In polls, Israelis overwhelmingly support Netanyahu's war in Iran. But the one success eluding him is ending the Gaza war and freeing the remaining hostages, and that is the open wound that hurts Israelis most. Daniel Estrin, NPR News, Tel Aviv. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Daniel Estrin is NPR's international correspondent in Jerusalem.