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A Brighter Outlook - 8/18/16

Conventional wisdom suggests that the low skilled American worker is doomed.  On the one hand, technology and globalization has been reducing demand for their skills.  On the other hand, rents, medical expenses, tuition and other items are becoming more expensive. 

But new research by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson offers a brighter outlook for both low skilled U.S. workers and economic growth.  As reported by the Wall Street Journal, his new study breaks down the forces that have propelled U.S. economic growth since nineteen forty seven, the year the transistor was invented. 

The study also provides projections of economic growth and underlying factors through twenty twenty four.  Based on his research, Jorgenson anticipates a boom in low-skilled work that will result in broader economic growth rising to around two point five percent on average per annum. 

These workers will primarily fill positions in America’s expanding service sector.  The number of hours worked will rebound, and more people will jump back into the labor force.  One factor that could prove a drag on growth is the looming plateau in educational attainment as the nation’s higher education sector reaches a saturation point.    

Anirban Basu, Chariman Chief Executive Officer of Sage Policy Group (SPG), is one of the Mid-Atlantic region's leading economic consultants. Prior to founding SPG he was Chairman and CEO of Optimal Solutions Group, a company he co-founded and which continues to operate. Anirban has also served as Director of Applied Economics and Senior Economist for RESI, where he used his extensive knowledge of the Mid-Atlantic region to support numerous clients in their strategic decision-making processes. Clients have included the Maryland Department of Transportation, St. Paul Companies, Baltimore Symphony Orchestra Players Committee and the Martin O'Malley mayoral campaign.