Megatrends: Transforming the Future of Work
Al Waller: Megatrends are increasingly influencing industry, employers, and the world of work. Welcome back to ClearPath – Your Roadmap to Health & Wealth SM. I’m your host, Al Waller. Joining me is Catherine Collinson, founding CEO and president of nonprofit Transamerica Institute® and its Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies®. On this episode, we’ll be explaining megatrends, how they are impacting employers, and potential implications for workers.
Catherine, before we tackle megatrends, I’d like to set the stage by learning more about your research and how employers are faring in general.
Catherine Collinson: Hi Al. With the help of The Harris Poll, my team and I surveyed more than 1,800 employers of U.S. for-profit companies in late 2022. We found that most are still recovering from the pandemic. In fact, fewer than one in three employers (32%) indicate they have either fully recovered (26%) or were not impacted (6%). Fifty-six percent have somewhat recovered, 9% haven’t started to recover, and 3% feel they may never recover from the pandemic.
Al Waller: On a conceptual level, we understand that employers have encountered difficulties, but these numbers are eye-opening. As employers are stepping into the future, what are some of their top concerns?
Catherine Collinson: Our survey asked employers about the major concerns among their company’s leadership and found:
- Eight in 10 employers (80%) cited at least one major concern related to the economy such as inflation (59%), recession (44%), supply chain issues (37%), and/or interest rates (32%).
- Nearly seven in 10 employers (69%) cited at least one workforce-related concern ranging from employee productivity (36%), employee health and safety (35%), employee retention and turnover (34%), ability to recruit new employees (31%), and return-to-work policies (25%) to diversity, equity, and inclusion (22%).
- Approximately three in 10 cited cybersecurity (31%), organizational and financial stability (30%), and demand for products and services (30%) as major concerns.
Al Waller: Employers have a lot going on these days. These insights are very illuminating. Having spent my career as a Human Resources executive and consultant, I often found that for confidentiality reasons, workers are not fully informed about the depth and breadth of the issues their employers are facing. The pandemic and post-pandemic environment has been challenging for everyone – including employers.
Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s talk about megatrends. What are they?
Catherine Collinson: Megatrends are global transformational forces that impact societies, public policy, economies and industry, and nearly every aspect of our daily lives. They are inherently disruptive and, as a result, they prompt innovation, drive change, and necessitate new ways of engaging with the world.
Al Waller: Today’s headlines are filled with news stories about seismic shifts in our lives. Long-standing assumptions and traditions are evolving in response to new realities. How are megatrends impacting employers?
Catherine Collinson: In our survey, we posed the open-ended question to more than 1,800 employers, “How are megatrends (e.g., globalization, robotics, artificial intelligence, population aging, ESG) impacting your business?” Their responses yielded some fascinating insights.
First of all, approximately two-thirds of employers said they were impacted by megatrends in one way or another. Among them, almost six in 10 indicated they were positively impacted. Many view megatrends as opportunities for growing their businesses, enhancing their operations, and/or increasing efficiencies.
To quote a Kentucky-based employer, “All of these massive trends enable us to concentrate on practically every facet of our business, including employee and company growth, and provide new streams of income and output for our business.”
Al Waller: What insights did you gain about specific megatrends? Let’s start with artificial intelligence and robotics, which are a big topic these days.
Catherine Collinson: Almost half of employers either directly or indirectly referenced technology in their responses – and several hundred specifically referenced AI and robotics as megatrends impacting their business – and most of their responses were positive. Let me share a couple of examples:
The owner of a small professional services company in Pennsylvania says, “Megatrends are bringing the product to the client and allowing more interaction. Artificial intelligence and making it easier for the potential client to visualize his or her businesses growth is crucial in today's environment.”
Quoting a partner in a large Colorado-based manufacturing company “We have incorporated some robotics in the harder labor branches as needed, but we do not want our employees to feel as their job security is being threatened.”
Among the relatively few employers who said they were negatively impacted by technology, they noted concerns and existential threats to their business.
Al Waller: With many employers focusing on technology, what did they share about workforce implications?
Catherine Collinson: More than one hundred employers referenced workforce implications in their responses – and with a wide range of perspectives. Some were feeling the pain of labor shortages, while others saw opportunities for technology to augment their human talent, and others to potentially reduce staffing needs. There were also mentions of alternative work arrangements that are helping their organizations.
Al Waller: To your point on alternative work arrangements, I honestly believe that flexibility was clearly one of the silver linings of the pandemic and on this path. On this podcast, we’ve often discussed the importance of keeping our job skills up-to-date and relevant. And in light of new technologies, it’s becoming more important than ever before.
Let’s turn our attention to some other megatrends. Globalization has been underway for decades. To what extent did employers reference it?
Catherine Collinson: Interestingly, the survey findings had relatively few references to globalization – possibly because it is now a long-standing reality. A couple of employers described how globalization has benefited their businesses and a couple of others mentioned current supply chain issue.
Al, I found it quite striking that population aging actually garnered more mentions than globalization – and with many of those mentions being observations that were neither positive nor negative.
Al Waller: Climate change is a huge megatrend impacting our lives. How are employers impacted by them?
Catherine Collinson: Al, with regard to climate change, the survey findings were quite intriguing and surprising. Out of 1,800 employers only two employers specifically referenced it. My hypothesis for the scant number of responses is that climate change has become accepted as a way of life.
Al Waller: This has been a fascinating glimpse into the minds of employers. In addition to those who have been positively impacted by megatrends, I’m also interested in insights about the one-third of employers that indicated they have not been by them. What did your research glean?
Catherine Collinson: Among those who have not been impacted, my reading of their responses, it is more of a matter that they have not been impacted yet. Many may be more susceptible than they think they are – especially with emerging disruptive technologies that change the way we live and work.
Al Waller: That’s a perfect lead-in for my next question. What are some key takeaways that you can offer our listeners?
Catherine Collinson: It’s crucial that we all have an awareness of our rapidly changing environments, so that we can prepare accordingly. Change is constant. It brings opportunities and potential threats. Successfully navigating change requires being open, receptive, creative, adaptable, and resilient. It also involves staying ahead of the curve and anticipating the potential need for contingency plans. Especially now, we have an opportunity to shape our world for the better. Let’s get it right.
Al Waller: Thanks, Catherine, for this thought-provoking conversation. For our listeners, if you’re interested in reading Transamerica Institute’s report Stepping Into the Future: Employers, Workers, and the Multigenerational Workforce along with other informative materials, please visit www.transamericainstitute.org.
Until our next episode, stay safe, be well, and thanks for listening.
ClearPath – Your Roadmap to Health & Wealth is brought to you by Transamerica Institute, a nonprofit private foundation dedicated to identifying, researching, and educating the public about retirement security and the intersections of health and financial well-being.
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