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Is President Obama's Climate Agreement with China Fair to the U.S.?

President Obama announced a major climate change agreement with China during a meeting in Beijing earlier this month.

“As the world’s two largest economies, energy consumers and emitters of greenhouse gases, we have a special responsibility to lead the global effort against climate change," Obama said on November 12, standing side by side with the  Chinese President.

"That is why today I am proud we can announce an historic agreement.  I commend President Xi, his team and the Chinese government for the commitment they are making to slow, peak, and then reverse the course of China’s carbon emissions." Obama said. "Today I can also say the United States has set a new goal of reducing our net greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels  by the year 2025.”

But how historic was the Bejing climate agreement, really, when you look at the fine print? 

The agreement is nonbinding.   It does not ask China to make any cuts in its emissions. And indeed, the agreement gives China the green light to increase its carbon dioxide pollution for the next 16 years, until 2030.

Jamie Henn, spokesman for a climate change organization called 350.org, said Obama’s announcement was a political step forward that will end the excuse by politicians in the U.S. and around the world that they won’t negotiate until China does.

Henn noted, however, that at this point the agreement itself is just words.  And even if the U.S. and China keep their promises, the goals are so modest that average global temperatures could still rise of perhaps seven degrees Fahrenheit  this century, which could mean severe droughts, wildfires, and flooding.

 “Physics and chemistry aren’t interested in negotiating with political reality," Henn said. "If we are going to really address this crisis, we are going to have to see real commitments. It’s one thing to make a pledge at an AA meeting. But you can’t go out and buy a keg of beer right after that. This is serious, and now we are going to see if our politicians are willing to do more than just lip service to the idea of climate change. But are really willing to stand up to the fossil fuel industry and provide some concrete actions.”

The hope is that the Beijing announcement will inspire binding agreements from countries around the world at a United Nations conference in Paris next year.

Ken Kimmell, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said one element of Obama’s climate agreement with China is ground-breaking.  China committed to generate 20 percent of its electricity through solar, wind, and other non-fossil fuel sources by year 2030.  That’s as much as is generated by all power plants in the US today.

But I asked Kimmel:  Is the Beijing agreement fair to Americans?  Industries in the United States are being asked to cut their  greenhouse gas emissions – while competing industries in China can keep increasing their pollution until 2030?

"Remember that China has four times the population of the United States," Kimmel said.  "And in the United States, our per capita emissions of gases is three times that of China.  And it’s also worth remembering that cumulatively the U.S. has put a lot more heat trapping gas into the atmosphere than China. China is still a developing country, they are still not where we are at economically….and so if you consider all those different factors, it is a fair deal."

Today, China is the world’s biggest polluter.  But over the last century, the US produced far more pollution than any other nation  – 300 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, more than triple that of China. And all our old greenhouse gases will persist in the atmosphere and  cause climate chaos around the world for centuries.    

So perhaps it is time to cool our complaints about China, and look into the mirror.