- On Air Program Guide
- A Blue View
- Brain Talk
- Cellar Notes
- Choral Arts Classics
- The Environment in Focus
- Gil Sandler’s Baltimore Stories
- Humanities Connection
- Maryland Morning with Sheilah Kast
- Midday with Dan Rodricks
- The Morning Economic Report
- Radio Kitchen
- The Signal
- Take Five
- Your Maryland
- Public Commentary
- War of 1812 Stories
The Four Biggest Best Picture Oscar Upsets, Statistically Speaking
Sat, 23 Feb 2013 13:56:00 -0500
By the time the curtains rise on the Academy Awards ceremony each year, Oscar-watching prognosticators are already reasonably sure which films are going to take home top prizes.
Their predictions are mostly driven by frenzied intra-industry campaigning, prolific press coverage and the closest approximation of Oscar "polls" — the winners of the dozens of awards that precede the Oscars each year. But of the 16 preceding awards analyzed by The New York Times' political statistician Nate Silver, only two — the Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards — have a greater than 50 percent success rate in predicting eventual Oscar winners. (The Directors Guild aligns with Oscar eight out of 10 times.) "Directors and producers are the movers and shakers in Hollywood, and any evidence about their opinions ought to count for a lot," Silver writes.
And their guilds are packed with Academy voters, so it makes sense that major category winners tend to match. In fact, when we analyzed the data, only four times since the Directors and Producers Guild Awards have existed have their top film picks of the year awards not overlapped with the Academy's best picture winner.
That kind of track record makes for stunning upsets on Oscar night.
With the help of film critic Chris Vognar of The Dallas Morning News, we took a look back at the biggest upsets, or to put a more positive spin on it, biggest surprise wins in the best picture category:
Copyright 2013 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
IN FOCUS TODAY
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 4:44am
For Baltimore businesses, this is "Clean Your Files" day, pat of the city's campaign to...
Monday, May 20, 2013 - 6:35am
WYPR's Fraser Smith and Luke Broadwater of the Baltimore Sun talk about the Baltimore City...
Friday, May 17, 2013 - 4:41am
More than 17,000 Baltimore students miss 20 or more days of school a year. Many of these...